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In 1982, he told Congress the economy was heading for a depression. He was completely wrong, lost almost everything, and had to borrow money from his father.
What he built afterward was not a better forecast. It was a machine designed on the assumption that he would be wrong again — written down, tested against history, and made to run whether he agreed with it on any given morning.
This is the story of thirty-one decisions, told as a narrative and drawn from his own books, published principles, investor letters, regulatory filings, contemporaneous reporting, and the public record.
It covers the trade that destroyed the firm, the rebuild from a spare bedroom, the all-weather portfolio designed to survive conditions nobody predicted, the culture of recorded meetings and open criticism that some employees found unbearable, and the succession that took eleven years and four attempts.
It is straight about the record. The celebrated returns are concentrated in the early decades; the years that followed were far more ordinary, and the book gives the number rather than the reputation.
The closing chapters separate the parts of the system that require a research department from the handful an individual can run — and the shortlist is genuinely useful.
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