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Descrição do livro
In 1943 an American schoolteacher bought a war bond for $18.75. Ten years later the government paid her $25, exactly as promised. It bought less than the $18.75 would have bought when she handed it over. She was not cheated. There was no moment of expropriation, no document she could have objected to, no official whose decision she could have contested. She was taxed by a mechanism with no name on any ballot. The Slow Default is about that mechanism as it operates now. A state that owes more than it can service has five exits: growth, austerity, default, inflationary shock, or financial repression — holding the return on savings below the rate at which prices rise, for long enough that arithmetic does the work politics cannot. Britain's national debt rose from £27 billion to £64 billion between 1946 and the mid-1970s while the burden it represented collapsed from 249 per cent of GDP. Nothing was repaid. The denominator did the work. Greece, uniquely among developed economies, was forced to take the honest exits instead. The record of what they cost is the reason nobody else will choose them. The second half of the argument is where the money is. Post-2008 regulation did not eliminate risk; it relocated it. Every rule that told a bank to step back created a space somebody else was permitted to occupy, at a price. A hedge fund earns a nearly riskless return in the world's safest market because the dealer that used to do it has been regulated out of the way. A stablecoin issuer takes deposits, holds Treasury bills, keeps the interest and pays the customer nothing — because the statute requires exactly that. The claim this book exists to defend is that the returns of sophisticated capital are not primarily a reward for intelligence. They are a reward for permission. Written by a quantitative analyst and risk manager, The Slow Default is built on primary sources throughout — central bank research, regulatory filings, court records and peer-reviewed work — with more than 330 numbered notes and a full index. It contains no forecast, no crash narrative and no investment advice. Its final part opens by describing an investor who understood all of this correctly in 1980, acted on it, and lost eighty-five per cent of his purchasing power over the following twenty-two years. What it offers instead is smaller and more durable: the ability to read an ordinary financial headline and know who is on which side of it — and whether you were ever permitted to choose. Every chapter ends by stating what would prove it wrong.
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